Import reduction potassium chloride hope good

As the taste fades, the haze on the potash market has not yet been dispersed. The early winter storage was not vigorous. With the start of the spring market, urea rose a bit, and a small amount of nitrogen fertilizer fluctuates. However, potassium chloride is still a bit dead. “Refreshing” seems to be only the share of hope, but how to catch it cannot catch it. .

Up to now, no major progress has been made in the new major contracts. Waiting, etc., only saw the low-end CIF value of standard potassium dropped to 250 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia, and even worse in the Brazilian region. The bank price has dropped to 210-220 US dollars / ton ... ... It seems that only the extension of the contract, import reductions, potassium chloride market can only be reactivated. As can be seen from the statistics of China FatNet, the import of border trade has already seen a declining trend. Imports in January were 149,000 tons, a decrease of 12.9% from the same period of last year and a 36.9% decrease from the highest level in a few years. The first reason is that China's potash fertilizer inventory was huge in 2015. Second, it lacks confidence in the improvement of demand. Third, the loss of potassium chloride imports is serious.

However, total imports in January were still huge, the highest level in the past five years, 34.7% more than the same period last year. This seems to be inconsistent with the previous description, but it is not. First, the large number of seaborne imports is largely the result of last resort under a large contractual agreement; secondly, there have been rumors that the approval of the new large contract before the approval of the maritime import license is suspended, so it is expected that the amount of imports later There should also be a noticeable reduction.

According to relevant statistics, the total carryover stock of potash fertilizer in China was about 5 million tons in 2015. Considering the ever-increasing domestic output, in fact, if you do not consider factors such as logistics, and simply look at the numbers, the large-scale contracts in 2016 may not be signed. Of course, in order to secure domestic long-term fertilizer use, the big contracts will be signed sooner or later. However, it is expected that they will wait until May at the earliest. They may even delay signing in the second half of the year as in 2006. Only in this way, with the inventories of stocks, the balance of supply and demand balance of the potassium fertilizer market can gradually be transferred back to the middle, and the market is expected to turn for the better.

However, in the current environment, the improvement of the market for potassium chloride is unlikely to happen overnight. In the short term, the price is likely to have some room for fall. Therefore, what we need to do is to maintain a cautious approach while keeping a close eye on the changes in import volume and the speed at which Hong Kong can absorb and digest. When will potassium chloride get better, let's wait and see!