Ammonium chloride market continued to bottom

After the Spring Festival, the ammonium chloride market experienced another “plunge” since 2012. It is reported that the market price of ammonium chloride in major regions of the country fell from 600 yuan/ton to around 550 yuan/ton from January 2014, and wet ammonium From 500 yuan / ton to about 450 yuan / ton, the actual turnover of ammonium chloride in individual areas fell below 400 yuan / ton. The one-month demand gap period, together with the normal production of upstream alkali companies during the Spring Festival, has accumulated more inventory. The continued sluggishness of the ammonium chloride market is largely caused by the following factors.

First, on the macro level, the benefits are limited. According to statistics, starting in 2008, there was no price increase for railway freight in 2010, and the annual growth rate of agricultural fertilizer railways was more than 13%. Due to the different modes of transportation in different regions, the overall post-holiday rail freight increase did not give the ammonium chloride market. Provide strong support. *** The depreciation has little impact on exports, international demand is sluggish, and there is hardly any shortage in the short term.

Second, the company's high operating rate, inventory overstock. Ammonium chloride is a by-product of the production of the Alkaline Company. During the Spring Festival, most of the Alkaline enterprises are in normal production. The gradual release of new production capacity of the ammonium chloride enterprise leads to excessive inventory pressure. The company mainly deals with inventory, resulting in the ammonium chloride market. The price has continued to fall. According to incomplete statistics, the current average operating rate of ammonium chloride enterprises remains around 60%, and some companies have been forced to stop overhaul due to market prices falling to the cost line. Some companies were dragged down by the sluggish ammonium chloride market and high inventory, resulting in the price of sodium carbonate being forced down.

Third, the start of the spring plowing market, the terminal demand is limited. According to incomplete statistics, the demand for fertilizers in Hubei Province is expected to reach 5 million tons, and about 3.5 million tons of agricultural fertilizer reserves. The demand for chemical fertilizers in Jiangsu province is about 1.5 million tons, and the Suonong Group has implemented more than 500,000 tons. Shaanxi Province has a demand of about 1 million tons and a social reserve of about 600,000 tons. By the end of February, the province’s agricultural chemical fertilizer reserves in Hunan exceeded 1.3 million tons, and the contradiction between supply and demand was evident. Pre-stocking in other regions basically meets agricultural needs. As a whole, the current demand for the spring plowing market has not significantly driven the ammonium chloride market, and the ammonium chloride market has continued to sideways.

Fourth, the price of high-fertilizer urea goes down and forms a certain substitute for ammonium chloride. Urea, as the leader in nitrogen fertilizers, does not increase and declines when spring farming comes. It is reported that the actual transaction price in Shandong is about 1,500 yuan/ton, and Shandong is currently trying its best to increase its price. Most of the mainstream quotes in the two rivers have dropped to 1,500 yuan/ton. There is currently more than one single discussion in Shanxi and the actual transaction is 1480-1490 yuan/ton. From the point of view of demand, high nitrogen fertilizer and BB fertilizer are still the mainstream development trend of compound fertilizer. The downside of urea price and its substitution effect on ammonium chloride will undoubtedly worsen the depressed ammonium chloride market. Once the urea is stable in the later period, the ammonium chloride company will adjust accordingly.

At present, the trading atmosphere of ammonium chloride market is sluggish, and the transaction on the market is limited. Taken together, the ammonium chloride market is affected by these negative factors, and there is no hope of a short-term recovery.