Fear of aniline rebound and long-term aniline situation is still not optimistic

On 13 November, an explosion accident occurred in a new installation of aniline with an annual output of 70,000 tons in Jilin Chemical Industry. It stopped the pace of downhill aniline all the way in the past six months. After a relatively quiet period of two or three days, there was a wave of market rally. Last week, many manufacturers' mainstream quotes rebounded from the previous explosion of 10,000 yuan (t price, the same below) to 11,000 yuan, and individual manufacturers even reported high prices of 11,600 yuan. Will the Jilin aniline explosion accident become a turning point in the aniline market? The author believes that despite the rebound in the short-term trend of aniline, the long-term perspective of aniline is still not optimistic.
Due to the upsurge of aniline construction in China in the past two years, the growth in production capacity is much higher than the increase in demand. In fact, in 2004, aniline was more than self-sufficient in China. In 2003, aniline was net import of 20,000 tons, and in 2004 it had become a net export of 36,000 tons. In May and August 2005, Lanzhou Petrochemical 70,000-ton project and Shandong Jinling 30,000-ton project were successively put into production. The scale of aniline supply and demand was heavily tilted, and the price of aniline began to decline gradually in June. The market price in East China was from May 15700. Yuanyi Road fell to 10,200 yuan in early November. The main reason for this rebound was the temporary shortage of market resources caused by the centralized parking of aniline plants, especially large ones. In addition to the 70% tonne of new plant capacity in Jilin, which was damaged due to accidents, other production capacity is still there, only temporarily. Play it out. At present, both the Lanhua and Dananhua old facilities have resumed their drive, and the new project of 100,000 tons in Nanhua has been completed and put into operation soon. The contradiction in market resources will be alleviated. In addition, the aniline device has another feature, that is, the design margin is relatively large, and the overload production capacity is relatively strong. In 2004, Nanhua had a production capacity of only 95,000 tons, but its output exceeded 120,000 tons; Jilin Chemical had only 136,000 tons of production capacity, and the output also reached more than 150,000 tons. Therefore, if there is demand in the market, there is still potential to tap existing capabilities.
From the demand point of view, the growth in demand for aniline is mainly concentrated on MDI. For non-MDI uses, except for the growth of rubber additives, the demand for other dyes, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and organic materials is basically stable. It is expected that the growth rate of non-MDI demand will not exceed 5%. Although MDI's demand growth momentum is strong, with the exception of the Wanhua Ningbo project, other joint-venture large-scale MDI projects are themselves equipped with aniline installations. This means that although these projects have a growth in consumption, they will basically not increase market demand for commodities. the amount.
Due to the absence of aniline at the moment, the new 100,000-ton aniline plant at Nanhua Group Co., which was commissioned at the end of this month, will not be able to reach production soon due to insufficient hydrogen. In addition, the Shanxi Tianji Group’s 130,000-ton aniline plant and the Jiangyin Shuangliang 50,000-ton aniline plant under construction will not be completed and put into operation within the end of the year. Therefore, before the first half of next year, the market supply of aniline may be somewhat tight, but with the above-mentioned projects under construction, the pattern of oversupply of aniline will be inevitable.